So-So Tuesday

Nope. No knock out punch.

N. Dakota Caucus
Santorum - 39.7% - 11 delegates
Romney - 23.7% - 7 delegates
Gingrich - 8.5%
This should have been a good shot for Paul. He ended up 11% behind Rick. I'm including Newt as for the next month, the Sounth is very prominant.

Georgia Primary
Gingrich - 47% - 46 delegates
Romney - 25% - 13 delegates
Santorum - 19% - 2 delegates
No surprise and no doubt a good money maker for Newt.

Virginia Primary
Romney - 59% - 43 delegates
This makes Newt's 46 delegaters in Georgia a wash. Shoulda had a disciplined enough campaign to be on the ballot Newt and although not as damaging Rick too.

Vermont Primary
Romney - 39% - 9 delegates
Santorum 23% - 4 delegates
Gingrich - 8% - 0 delegates

Ohio Primary
Romney - 38% - 35 delegates
Santorum - 37% - 21 delegates
Rick had lost even the posibility of 18 delegates via signature collection so combine that with a 1% Mitt 'win' and this was the punch that didn't land for Mitt. Add to that, women really moved to Romney. You have to ask did they vote FOR Romeny, or AGAINST Santorum?

Tennessee Primary
Santorum - 37% - 25 delegates
Romney - 28% - 10 delegates
Gingrich - 24% - 8 delegates
This is the start of Mitt's Southern 'problem'.

Oklahoma Primary
Santorum - 33% - 14 delegates
Romney - 28% - 13 delegates
Gingrich - 27% - 13 delegates
More of Mitt's 'Southern' problem. Thatbeing that someone else is still running. Newt is taking away from Rick in the South but with Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma, Newt is still competing re:the Convention.

Massachusetts Primary
Romney - 72% - 38 delegates
No surprise as this is actually Mitt's 'home' State, not Michigan.

Alaska Caucus
Romney - 32% - 8 delegates
Santorum - 29% - 7 delegates
Gingrich (despite Palin) 14% - 3 delegates

Idaho Caucus
Romney - 61% - 32 delegates
Santorum - 18% - 0 delegates
Gingrich - 2% - 0 delegates

So......
Mitt 208 delegates
Rick 84 delegates
Newt 70 delegates
From : http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/06/super-tuesday-2012-results_n_1324709.html?ref=politics

Of course the actual delegate count is more let's say 'special' then this but at just 1/2 the delegates up for grabs, not a knock out punch.

Now I need to throw in, no one else really has a chance at getting the nomination but Romney. He basicly has it wrapped up.

What's happening now is the slow and very ugly hacking apart of what was once, to me, a very Grand Old Party in the mold of Eisenhower.

The seperation, ideological, between Rick, Newt and Mitt is huge.

And add to that the 'excitement' factor and Romeny and the other Republican candidates are shaping a Romney winning the battle (nomination) and really losing the war (election) badly.

Policy should not have been replaced with ideology.

And the running total :
Romney - 386 delegates
Santorum - 159 delegates
Gingrich - 120 delegates
Paul - 73 delegates
Needed to win - 1144
From : http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/R-HS.phtml

Ohio + Tennessee = I guess it's Romney

Newt will have one big win tonight - Georgia and one even bigger loss - Virginia where he failed to even qualify to get on the ballot.
HAD he been on the ballot, it would add weight to the 'any body but Mitt'.

Ron Paul may actually win and even TWO States tonight. Alaska and N. Dakota.

Santorum will win Oklahoma. Tennessee is now a toss up. If and that isn't looking too promising but still IF Santorum wins Tennesse AND the popular vote (he won't win the delegates) then it keeps this race going. It would clearly show Romney simply can't deliver the knock out punch.

Romney. Big wins in Vermont, Virginia, Massachusetts and a win in Idaho. Possible Tennessee, possible Ohio (defenately will get the Ohio delegates).

So.....
Ron Paul 2 States - Alaska, N. Dakota
Newt 1 State - Georgia
Rick 3 States - Tenneesse, Oklahoma, Ohio (popular vote only)
Romney 4 States - Massachusetts, Vermont, Virginia, Idaho (and the Ohio delegates.)

But then comes the rest of the month for Mitt -
3/10 - Kansas, US Virgin Isl, Guam
3/13 - Alabama, Hawaii, Mississippi
3/17 - Missouri
3/18 - Puerto Rico
3/20 - Illinois
3/24 - Louisiana

A lot of Southern and Mid Western States that so far haven't been kind to Mitt.
From : http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/

Some interesting notes :
-In Tennessee only 33% of GOP primary voters think Barack Obama was born in the United States, while 45% do not.
-In Georgia 40% of Republican primary voters think Obama was born in the United States, while 38% do not.
-In Ohio 42% of Republican primary voters think Obama was born in the United States, while 37% do not.
From : http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/limbaugh-and-birthers.html
Hence the double face palm. (GRINS!)

Spokane County no longer 'Paul Country'?

As a 'Liberal' in the land of Conservatives, I very often just like being on the outside looking in.

Spokane is and always has been a very Conservative town and County. Over the last several years, this has been 'Ron Paul Country'.

But now this :

Spokane
Gingrich - 411 - 8%
Paul - 1,340 -26%
Romney - 1,521 -30%
Santorum - 1,511 - 30%

The total for the State :
Total
Gingrich -  5,221 - 10%
Paul - 12,594 - 25%
ROmney - 19,111 - 38%
Santorum - 12,089 -24%
From : http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/WA_President_0303.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Washington State, this caucus, is just a 'beauty contest' with no delegates awarded.

Will that matter and especially in Ohio on Tuesday?

The Weekly 2012 - Super Tuesday

Washington State has a Caucus on Saturday and Romney is in a comfortable lead.

Georgia - 76 delegates - Proportional
Gingrich is leading.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-presidential-primary/213515-ohio-is-next-battlefield-for-the-gop

Massachusetts - 41 delegates - Proportional
Romney and big.

Ohio - 66 delegates- Winer Take All
Santorum up slightly in Ohio. He's trying to get away from the "God is good, God is great, all the rest are second rate' message. If he can, big win here.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1714

Oklahoma - 43 delegates - Winner Take All
Another big lead for Santorum.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-presidential-primary/213515-ohio-is-next-battlefield-for-the-gop

Tennessee - 58 delegates - With majority, Winner Take All
Santorum up and up big.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-presidential-primary/213515-ohio-is-next-battlefield-for-the-gop

Vermont - 17 delegates - With majority, Winner Takes All
Romney but not big.

Virginia - 49 delegates - With Majority, Winner Takes All
Romney holds big lead. Bet Santorum wishes he'd gotten on the ballot now. (Newt's failure not to do so wouldn't have made much of a difference.)
http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Events/Campus_News/RC_Poll_March_2011_Republican_primary.htm

Alaska - 27 delegates - Caucus
Paul.

Idaho - 32 delegates - Caucus
Likely Paul but a large Mormon population too.

N.Dakota - 28 - Caucus
Paul and Santorum?

Washington - Romney
Georgia - Gingrich
Massachusetts - Romney
Ohio - Split
Oklahoma - Santorum
Tennessee - Santorum
Vermont - Romney
Virginia - Romney
Alaska - Paul
Idaho - Romney
N. Dakota - Paul

We are looking at a possible at, around or even less the 200 delegates for Romney on (cough) Super Tuesday.

Only 'winning' Michigan by 3 points and Santorum NOT getting on Virginia's ballot are two big loses for both campaigns.

But worse, Super Tuesday will allow Santorum to get back ON message (and off of the piety stuff) and doesn't give Romney the knock out punch with all of the splits and delegate sharing. If Santorum wins in Ohio, it just adds to the same doubt as the 3 point Romeny 'win' in Michigan.

The Weekly 2012

Three 'fronts' for President Obama this week.

1. Gas prices. How high and how long. $4.50 and above and 3 months and he will have problems. $4.00 and 60 days and not so much as it won't extend into the election and Americans have extremely short attention spans.
But for the time being, get use to the lumping of 'failed policies' mantra.
http://www.jammiewf.com/2012/pelosi-2008-bush-to-blame-for-high-gas-prices-pelosi-2012-wall-street-to-blame-for-high-gas-prices/

2. Still running against Congress is his best bet. The Superme Court may actually put off a decision of the AHCA. Start Googling Anti-Injunction Act :
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/73111.html

 (I can't see them actually do that but.......) and that would be the only high profile news that would shake the Republican House. But here the President again can continue to campaign against them as they, Congress, would call for the repeal and replace and still have no plan for replacement.
Actually they do have a 'replace' plan. They call it 'options'. Most of us would call it being handed the phone book turned to the 'I's'. Pick and insurnace company.

3. Staying above the Republican Presidential candidates 'fray'.
The raise, mostly from Gingrich and Santorum of the 'Obama is anti'American'.
The voters that do have an attention span, and mostly moderates at this stage of the election process, have the intelligence to know that Obama isn''t anti-American.
They also understand that THAT line of campaiging is used to replace a lack of policy proposals.

Republicnas -

It's almost like a portion of the Republican Party has decided that since women have gotten the 'right' to vote, they've gotten kind of 'uppity'. So men will have to step in and decide for them re:their reproduction and basicly sex practices in general.

You have to start asking yourself - are there Republicans in high positions that are directing this? Or is it a case of the tail wagging the dog?

The President and Democrats in general, are going to 'lose' 2-5 Million votes due to the tightening of voting laws in a dozen States.
See : http://americancityandcounty.com/new-laws/states-and-local-governments-face-new-voting-laws-2012
A good article and also the link to the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law's article “Voting Law Changes in 2012”.

Is it possible that the Republicans felt bad about that so are going to (pardon my 'french') piss off women?

Mitt Romney - It's trending that Mitt will win in Michigan and Arizona on Tuesday. But at this stage and in a

State that he has family ties to, it should have been an easy victory.

In fact at this point, he should be racking up victories and stock piliung cash to use in the general Election.

Instead he's having to campaign had and spend big.

Romney simply put, does not enthuse, excite the Republicans.

A loss in Michigan and the general lack of enthusiasm would mean an end to the Romney campaign. He'd stay in as he DOES have the money and organization but the State's going into the loss column will greatly out number the winning States.

And after Tuesady? Even with at least one and maybe two wins, it doesn't get any easier - Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, N. Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virgina.
At best, Romney is looking at a 50-50 split here.
http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/

Rick Santorum -

The opposite of Mitt is Rick. He DOES excite the minority base of the Republican party.

Unfortunately while he's doing THAT, he's scaring the crap out of moderate middle America.
http://www.suntimes.com/news/elections/10790477-505/santorums-2008-satan-warning.html

http://www.indyposted.com/187099/santorum-attacks-education/

http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2012/feb/22/santorum-stirs-up-anti-obama-rhetoric/

Santorum would represent a culture war. If you aren't 'Christian' and we'll decide who is and isn't, then you are anti - American.

How sad is it that the seeming focus of a campaign is on religion and it's roll in daily life and education instead of positive proposals to rebuild America and put it back to work?

Newt -

Well Newt got his Super Pac money :
http://swampland.time.com/2012/02/17/sheldon-adelson-swoops-in-to-rescue-gingrich-and-maybe-romney-too/

The problem of course is that it's to be spent on stopping Santorum not Romney.

Adleson wants Obama out but not at the risk of Santorum in.

Ron Paul -

Yes he's still running. The only question is how many delegates will he have and will they be of any use on the, what's becoming more and more likely on a first ballot of what will be a 'brokered' Convention.

The Convention -

There are two people, Former Governor Jeb Bush and Governor Chris Christie that have the name recognition AND would excite the moderates both in the Republican Party and in general, that their nomination at the Republican Convention could and depending on the economy, would defeat President Obama.

More importantly and something that should be happening right now, is the intelligent debate on the real issues facing America we shoulld and could be having.

Either's nomination, with or without a victory in November, would split the Republican Party and to the point where the minority of tea and religious right would have to form a 3rd National political party.

Newt - 'We're in the money'

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJOjTNuuEVw

But sadly it won't be to elect him but rather have him attack Rick so that Mitt can win.

'Billionaire Sheldon Adelson, by far the biggest financial backer of Newt Gingrich's presidential bid, is preparing to open his wallet again. But this time, the casino magnate appears to have more than one agenda'.
'In a bit of political chess, Mr. Adelson is ready to not only directly support the former House speaker in the Republican primary, but to use his cash to push Rick Santorum from his position atop the latest national polls, according to people who have discussed the matter with Mr. Adelson'.

'If Mr. Gingrich could afford to continue campaigning, one of those people said, he might be able to draw off conservative and evangelical voters from Mr. Santorum, improving the chances of Mitt Romney, who Mr. Adelson believes has a better chance to win November's general election'.
From : http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052970204062704577223583032248366-lMyQjAxMTAyMDEwNTExNDUyWj.html?mod=e2tw

The not so astute Newt

The National Review is a leading Conservative publication and one I read frequently.

Don't always agree, in fact rarely would be a better word but usually I can be inspired to think outside the 'box' that is my World.

'At the moment Rick Santorum appears to be overtaking Newt Gingrich as the principal challenger to Mitt Romney. Santorum has won more contests than Gingrich (who has won only one), has more delegates, and leads him in the polls. In at least one poll, he also leads Romney. It isn’t yet a Romney-Santorum contest, but it could be headed that way'.

'We hope so. Gingrich’s verbal and intellectual talents should make him a resource for any future Republican president. But it would be a grave mistake for the party to make someone with such poor judgment and persistent unpopularity its presidential nominee. It is not clear whether Gingrich remains in the race because he still believes he could become president next year or because he wants to avenge his wounded pride: an ambiguity that suggests the problem with him as a leader. When he led Santorum in the polls, he urged the
Pennsylvanian to leave the race. On his own arguments the proper course for him now is to endorse Santorum and exit'.
From : http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/national-review-to-newt-drop-out-and-endorse-santorum/

The Republicans need to be ADDING people to the primary. True Newt is no longer astute or smart but instead just a grumpy, angry, left and living in the past man.

But having him in the race will with the greatest of hope, inspire SOMEONE else to get into the race.

The only arguement the Republicans come up with in opposing Romney is they need an 'anti-Mitt'.

What the Republicans seem to have forgotten is that to lead their party, they need someone who is FOR America not just against Mitt.

Newt the 'astute', slowly and not so softly killing the 2012 election

'And what of Gingrich's pledge to carry on his crusade all the way to Tampa? That's takeaway number three. ........'

'But in Gingrich's case, he might be serious, so much has he come to despise Romney and the Republican Establishment that has brought down on him a twenty-ton shithammer in Florida, and so convinced is he of his own Churchillian greatness and world-historical destiny. The same antic, manic, lunatic bloody-mindedness that has made him such a rotten candidate in the Sunshine State may be enough to keep him the race a good long time'.

'Waging a protracted battle would likely be an act of futility for Gingrich, but it could turn out to be something much worse for Romney. That is why it's so important for the latter not just to win on Tuesday but to win big — very big. And that, in turn, is why the matter of margins will be the topic of tomorrow's column'.
From : http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/01/newt-mad-and-mental-enough-to-fight-on-after-florida.html