The Weekly 2012

President Obama is still running against Congress (as in 'do nothing congress') and running ahead of the Euro Debt Crisis.

The long term (election) question is can/will he be able to run fast enough so that the Debt Crisis there won't affect US HERE in the US?

'It's the economy' will be the deciding factor regarding his re-electability and depending on a 'crisis' there or not and how severe it is or isn't and if or how it will affect our Nation's economy will determine the out come.
So the trending is more important then the 'snapshot'.

While not having much control over the economy, Obama does have control (literal and figurative) over the target of his Presidential campaign.

Congress.

While Congressional approval is trending down (Gallup - 10%) the Presidents is trending up (50%).
http://www.gallup.com/poll/152528/Congress-Job-Approval-New-Low.aspx

Add to this, the President can and will attach whoever the Republican Presidential nominee is to Congress.

This is the potential negative 'blow back' or 'buyers remorse' of the 'Tea Party' sweep in the midterms of 2010.

The 'no compromise' Tea party leading to gridlock (do nothing) and the 10% Congressional approval rating.
Republicans

Former Senator Rick Santorum -
The current front runner because the Republicans have gone through everyone else.
Palin, Huckabee, Trump, Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich. All that's left is Romney and Santorum.
Santorum is up because of the three victories he had last week but while that is the upside, the downside is now he will also get much more exposure.
His campaign is borderline 'Biblical Constitutionalism' and while that really excites the more radical 'core' of the Republican Party, it really, really turns off the moderate majority of Americans.
So the question becomes, is the more radical 'core' of the Republican party going to assert itself? Or is it that the rank and file of the Republican Party has become 'unenthusiastic' so the minority more radical element is dominant?

The 'tail wagging the dog' effect.

A Santorum 'victory' would be winning the battle (for the Nomination) and losing the war (General Election). Such a 'victory' would also keep splintering the Republican Party.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich -
Will he make it (See Sheldon Adelson) to March 6th and 'Super Tuesday'?
If he does he has to, repeat HAS TO win in Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Virgina. And has to finish no worse then 2nd in Ohio.
One HUGE problem. Newt didn't make it onto the Virgina ballot.
So unless Rich Santorum and Mitt Romneyh decide to suspend their respective campaigns, Newt is for 'show' not 'go'. See you on FOX spews and the book selling circut.

Former Governor Mitt Romney -
Mitt has two problems. Short term he has to win BIG in either the Feb. 28 Primaries in Arizona or Michigan. Even just one loss in either of these two States puts him on very, very shaky ground. Two loses and he's done.

Long term, Mitt has his biggest problem. Eric Erickson and Rush Limbaugh have both marked Mitt as 'not Conservative'. It's impossible for him to 'win over' the base of the Republican party.
Without the 'base', the enthusiasm is gone for the Republican Party and so is the General Election. 
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2012/02/08/Republican-primaries-schedule-and-results/UPI-68901328682602/