'The Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) is intended to help inform the U.S. policy community about the relative urgency and importance of competing conflict prevention demands. The Center for Preventive Action asked a targeted group of government officials, academics, and experts to comment confidentially on a list of contingencies that could plausibly occur in 2012'.
'The list of preventive priorities for the United States is grouped according to three tiers of relative importance to U.S. national interests, based on different levels or categories of risk associated with various types of instability and conflict. The preventive priorities within each tier are not listed in any order of priority or probability'.
Tier I
•a mass casualty attack on the U.S. homeland or on a treaty ally
•a severe North Korean crisis (e.g., armed provocations, internal political instability, advances in nuclear
weapons/ICBM capability)
•a major military incident with China involving U.S. or allied forces
•an Iranian nuclear crisis (e.g., surprise advances in nuclear weapons/delivery capability, Israeli response)
•a highly disruptive cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure (e.g., telecommunications, electrical power, gas and oil, water supply, banking and finance, transportation, and emergency services)
•a significant increase in drug trafficking violence in Mexico that spills over into the United States
•severe internal instability in Pakistan, triggered by a civil-military crisis or terror attacks
•political instability in Saudi Arabia that endangers global oil supplies
•a U.S.-Pakistan military confrontation, triggered by a terror attack or U.S. counterterror operations
•intensification of the European sovereign debt crisis that leads to the collapse of the euro, triggering a double-dip U.S. recession and further limiting budgetary resources
From : http://www.cfr.org/conflict-prevention/preventive-priorities-survey-2012/p26686?cid=nlc-news_release-news_release-link4-20111209
No comments:
Post a Comment